In the case that the domestic photovoltaic export market is blocked, a number of photovoltaic enterprises have announced plans to expand their production capacity. What are their plans to expand their production against the wind? The main reason is to reduce the price and technical iteration of photovoltaic modules, etc. this wave will accelerate the shuffle of photovoltaic industry, make the strong permanent, while the weak will be eliminated, which has a positive impact on the future development of photovoltaic industry.
As we all know, photovoltaic overseas market accounts for more than 60% of the company's shipment. Affected by the epidemic, the export of photovoltaic overseas is blocked, and the domestic photovoltaic market has become the main "position" of photovoltaic enterprises.
In this seemingly unfavorable situation, many photovoltaic enterprises are expanding their production against the trend. The data shows that in a few months since 2020, the photovoltaic expansion chain has covered the industrial chain links such as single crystal silicon rod (chip), battery, module, etc., with a total scale of 210.92gw. Among them, the upstream silicon material has been expanded by 75000 tons, the midstream silicon rod and silicon wafer have been expanded by 47.6gw, the downstream battery end has been expanded by 86.2gw, and the photovoltaic module has been expanded by 69.62gw.
Not long ago, Jingao technology announced that it plans to raise no more than 5.2 billion yuan for high-efficiency battery, component capacity expansion and other projects. Prior to that, Tongwei Co., Ltd. put forward 20 billion yuan of high-efficiency battery expansion plan in February this year; gclsi released 18 billion yuan of component expansion plan in March this year...... Some professional organizations pointed out that in the first quarter of 2020, more than 40 photovoltaic enterprises announced the expansion of production.
What are the plans of photovoltaic enterprises to expand production against the wind? Some experts say that strengthening the scale effect is an important reason for domestic photovoltaic enterprises to explain the necessity of expanding production, which is an important means to realize the increase of market share and the decrease of overall production cost of photovoltaic companies. On the other hand, the drive of new technology iteration has also become one of the reasons for the expansion of enterprises. Hjt (heterojunction) and large-scale silicon chips have become two hot new technology routes in the photovoltaic industry, and the expansion of production tends to these two technologies. Another important reason is that the old capacity faces higher unit capital expenditure and depreciation, so the expansion of new capacity becomes a better choice for photovoltaic enterprises.
Market participants agree with the above views, and also say that cost is one of the core logic of photovoltaic. Technological innovation keeps the cost down, so as to achieve large-scale mass production.
Liu Yiyang, Deputy Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, also said that domestic leading photovoltaic enterprises have made a large layout of production capacity, mainly optimistic about photovoltaic competitiveness and market expectations. 80% of capacity expansion projects are invested in single crystal materials, which means that more enterprises want to seize the development opportunity of single crystal market. The investment direction of efficient components is more clear.
It is also believed that the capacity expansion of photovoltaic enterprises means that the industrial concentration is accelerating. No matter the market occupation of enterprises or the capacity concentration, the direction is more and more clear.
Li Zhenguo, President of Longji, once said that in at least 70% to 80% of countries and regions around the world, photovoltaic has become a cheaper local power source. As far as the current situation is concerned, with the continuous iteration of photovoltaic technology, there is still a great potential for the cost reduction of photovoltaic power generation.
It is predicted by some institutions that the price of series inverter is expected to drop from 0.35 yuan / watt in 2017 to 0.20 yuan / watt in 2020, and that of centralized inverter is expected to drop from 0.25 yuan / watt in 2017 to 0.10-0.15 yuan / watt in 2020. The application of advanced technology is a major prerequisite to drive photovoltaic enterprises to expand production.
Shi Jingli, a researcher at the renewable energy center of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, explained that there are many new photovoltaic technologies, and it is also possible that there will be totally different technological routes and multiple routes in parallel in the future. At the same time, this round of production expansion will also shuffle the photovoltaic industry on a large scale. Some small and medium-sized enterprises without financial advantages will fall into a dilemma. For the old and powerful enterprises, with the expansion of production capacity, the market share will be further improved, so as to eliminate a number of inefficient products, so that competitive and efficient production capacity and global photovoltaic demand will be presented as a whole Equilibrium state.
